In addition to the sequelae of the "double-pass" game, the supply of silicon wafers, the shortage of components and prices, the uncertainty of storage prices, and the lack of motivation for the development of smart phones, coupled with the emerging AI, 5G, etc. Application promotion. The market is gaining momentum, and every change that comes with it will have a profound impact on the industry: First, the era of cash grabbing of components will come.
The electronic practitioners who have witnessed the golden age of Huaqiangbei should not forget the scene of grabbing goods from Huaqiang Electronic World and SEG's counter counters in the early years. The rapid development of terminals at the time brought unprecedented good conditions to the upstream component suppliers. However, with the expansion of the production capacity of foreign manufacturers and the growth of domestic suppliers, the supply of electronic components has entered a relatively stable and even excess phase. However, from the beginning of last year, the prices of components that have not been seen for many years have clamored for one after another.
Taking passive components as an example, according to incomplete statistics, Guo Ju, the largest supplier of passive components in Taiwan, adjusted the MLCC price increase in 2017, and the average price of the entire MLCC market soared tenfold in two months. The price of other chip resistors, inductors, etc. also starts at a price. The same problem also appeared in the active products such as MCU. At the end of last year, the price of NXP MCUs will increase by 5% to 10% in the first quarter of this year.
Due to the shortage of silicon wafers, it can be seen that the price increase will be the theme of the electronics industry in 2018. For the relevant parties, how to cope will become extremely critical.
Second, the uncertainty of the storage price trend will also bring uncertainties to the outlook of terminals, suppliers, and even agents and traders.
The rise of storage, including NAND and DRAM, in 2017 not only helped Samsung surpass Intel to become a global semiconductor dominator, but also accelerated the autonomous storage layout of the storage-consuming country China. Entering the new year, the trend of these two products once again attracted the attention of the entire industry chain.
What about the supply of Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron? How is the price trend this year? Can China's storage rise? This will be the three major issues that all participants in the industry chain are concerned about.
Third, will the smartphone's stamina be insufficient, and will AI and 5G bring enough new momentum? This is also a key point that affects the entire electronics industry.
Since Apple introduced the iPhone in 2007, it has triggered a boom in smart phones. Not only have Apple, Google, Huawei, VIVO, OPPO, and Xiaomi been established, the entire electronics industry chain has been subverted by this new category, and the replacement of old and new suppliers has become a reality. The sudden emergence of manufacturers has reshaped the upstream landscape. The most important point, they also bear the bulk of the entire semiconductor consumption.
However, in the last two years, due to lack of innovation, the growth of smart phones has been sluggish, and suppliers have turned their attention to some directions that may rekindle the passion of consumers. For example, under the screen fingerprint identification, full-screen and 3D sensing, the development of these three new innovations will be an X factor that will enable the smart phone industry to regain its speed. AI and 5G are determinants of whether the next generation of smart phones or even the Internet of Things industry will take off.
The AI, which is called artificial intelligence, has attracted many traditional giants and emerging companies into the past two years because of its subversion of the industry. How to grasp the chips, software, tools, and applications among them has become the focus of the industry chain.
The 5G, which has a speed of 1 Gbps, is another important point for smart phones and related applications that can re-enter the fast track. At the same time around 5G, new applications such as RF, antennas and millimeter waves will drive the next wave of supply chain growth.
In this 2018 full of opportunities and challenges, a brand new electronic product supply chain is being reshaped.